There could be over two billion PCs worldwide by 2014, up from more than one billion PCs today. Analysts at Gartner (News - Alert), who made that prediction, estimate that the installed base is growing at just under 12 percent annually. Gartner defines the installed base of PCs as the estimated number of PCs in use as opposed to the number shipped over a given a period.

 

That’s excellent news for firms making and marketing technology products and services. The more PCs there are the greater demand for applications to run on them.

 

These companies will, however, have to shift more of their marketing focus overseas to emerging markets, (such as China, India, and in Africa- ed.) as opposed to mature markets such as the US, Japan, and Western Europe.

 

“Whereas mature markets accounted for just under-60 percent of the first billion installed PCs, we expect emerging markets to account for approximately 70 percent of the next billion installed PCs,” says Gartner research vice president Luis Anavitarte.

 

The firm cites the explosive expansion of broadband and wireless connectivity in emerging markets, the continuing fall in PC average selling prices, and the general realization that PCs are an indispensable tool for advancement.

 

Many countries are also committed to reducing the digital divide by promoting PC use among their citizens through a variety of means, reports Anavitarte, including providing PCs directly to the less affluent.

 

(Another contributing factor, not cited by Gartner in its release, is the spread of offshore contact centers to low-cost emerging countries. These firms have given many residents their first literally hands-on experience with PCs and with the Internet.)

 

“There’s a startling difference in per capita PC penetration between mature and emerging markets,” research director George Shiffler points out. “Rapid economic development across emerging markets is not only narrowing the disparity in average living standards, it's closing the difference.”

 

Increasing affluence also means more junked computers. The global PC installed base is constantly being churned as users replace their used machines with new ones, say Gartner’s analysts. Some retired PCs find their way back into the installed base to second owners through various channels, some are broken up and recycled, but others are simply dumped directly into landfill.

 

“We forecast just over 180 million PCs — approximately 16 percent of the existing installed base — will be replaced this year,” says principal research analyst Meike Escherich. ”We estimate a fifth of these, or some 35 million PCs, will be dumped into landfill with little or no regard for their toxic content. The disposition of retired PCs has become a high-profile issue for many PC vendors, governments and environmental interest groups. It will become an even more pressing issue, especially in emerging markets, as the number of retired PCs grows with the continuing expansion of the PC installed base.”